Walsall’s League Two promotion charge in numbers
The Saddlers are heading for League One and nobody looks capable of stopping them but Stoke City
The new year brought with it a new contract for Mat Sadler. Early last week, the 39-year-old signed a new deal to extend his managerial reign at Walsall, his final club as a player and his first in the dugout.
The Saddlers had no other option. They’re the form team in the EFL and are streaking away at the top of League Two, strutting closer and closer to a return to the third tier with every passing game.
It’s the kind of position that catches the eye of clubs in higher divisions. With vacancies opening up above them, Walsall showed their faith in a young manager who’s masterminding a historic season at the Bescot.
Saturday’s 5-1 win over Tranmere Rovers set a new club record. It was the first time in their history that Walsall have won eight league fixtures in a row and they did it at a canter.
That the result itself wasn’t a surprise shouldn’t distract from their dominance. Football is full of surprises and gaps bridged but Walsall weren’t having any of it.
It wasn’t a perfect display. Teenage striker Nathan Lowe scored late but wasn’t able to get himself into dangerous positions as often as usual. Sadler will spend some of this week mulling over his team’s passive response to a red card for Tranmere’s Sam Finley with the home team 2-0 up and Rovers’ discipline crumbling in a feisty period after the second goal.
Tranmere scored next, a warning that the job wasn’t done. The Saddlers shifted back down a gear, put their foot down, scored early in the second half and then managed the remainder beautifully. At full time, they were 13 points clear at the top of the table.
Crewe Alexandra played later the same day and cut the lead to 12 but a goalless draw at Swindon Town wasn’t the sort of result to unduly worry the leaders.
Walsall and third-placed Salford City both have a game in hand on the Alex. Wimbledon, in fifth, have played one fewer still. The teams between second and seventh are divided by just three points. They’re all as close to mid-table as they are to Walsall at the top.
Walsall had become used to mid-table. They’re in their sixth successive season in the fourth tier and haven’t finished above 11th in any of them. They’ve finished 16th twice and dropped as far as 19th in the 2020/21 season.
Should they secure promotion this season, they’ll be back in League One for the first time since 2018/19, when they lost every other game and were relegated in 22nd place.
Walsall’s emphatic charge towards promotion this season is unexpected to say the least. Far from scaring themselves off-kilter, the Saddlers are gathering pace with every win. Sadler’s contract extension is a direct result of that.
With 22 matches left to play, Walsall are theoretically on track for a 104-point season. The Swifts are flying and showing little sign of coming down.
Walsall’s unimpeachable League Two form
It goes without saying that the runaway leaders in the fourth tier of English football are its best team, but the details beneath the straightforward matter of wins and losses are worth unpacking in Walsall’s case.
Sadler’s Saddlers are on the longest winning streak and the longest unbeaten run in the division. That’s not the longest at the moment, but the longest of anyone at any point in the season.
Nobody else has won more than six matches in a row, nor gone more than twelve unbeaten. Walsall are currently unbeaten in 15 league matches as well as achieving a club record eight wins in a row not out.
They’ve conceded just two goals in seven matches and were frustrated by the second of those against Tranmere on Saturday. Goalkeeper Tommy Simkin, on loan from Stoke City, has racked up eleven clean sheets this season, more than any other League Two goalkeeper.
The Saddlers have collected 32 of their 55 points at home and 23 away. They’re top of the home table and second in the away table, one point behind promotion rivals Port Vale having played three fewer games. They’re top of the away form table.
Jamille Matt and Nathan Lowe: Walsall’s deadly duo
For all their dominance in the last two months, Walsall now face a serious test of their mettle in the second half of the season.
They announced the news supporters had been dreading the day after spanking Tranmere. Lowe, also on loan from Stoke, had been recalled by new Potters manager Mark Robins. The hole he leaves behind is bigger than just the goals he contributed in the first half of the campaign.
Lowe has understandably attracted the headlines but his pairing with 35-year-old Jamille Matt has been a big part of Walsall’s on-field success this season. Lowe has learned plenty from his partner, both in terms of street smarts and the use of his physical strength, but the dynamic has brought out the best in both of them.
Matt has scored more, started more and played more this season than last. Together, he and Lowe have made Walsall the most dangerous team in League Two and Sadler has thus far reaped the rewards.
As good as Matt’s resurgence has been in 2024/25, it’s Lowe who’s been the key beneficiary of Walsall’s chance creation. He leads the team in expected goals (xG) value for the season and has scored more than expected.
Lowe is the top scorer in the fourth tier, two goals ahead of Bromley’s Michael Cheek and three in front of a trio of players on twelve for the season. The teenager scored 0.74 goals per 90 minutes in his league games for Walsall and that’s become one hell of a conundrum for the club.
He’s the league’s fifth most important contributor to his team in terms of goals, scoring 31% of the Saddlers’ very respectable tally. Matt is tenth on that list, scoring 19% of Walsall’s league goals up to this point.
Walsall limit opponents with the ball
Lowe in particular has capitalised on Walsall’s strategy with the ball but Sadler’s plan is to get promoted without it.
Only Bromley (39.5%) average lower possession than Walsall (41.6%) in the whole of League Two. The opposition play the highest number of short passes per game against Walsall.
If that, combined with the second-lowest number of crosses allowed per game, suggests they’re being forced to play most in front of Walsall, a similarly high number of long passes might be indicative of an element of desperation.
It’s not that Walsall sit in a low block, nor that they’re especially effective on the counter-attack. They flood the middle third partly by design and partly as a result of not having the ball. With centre backs high and strikers deep, Walsall stifle their opponents in the middle of the park.
Walsall’s secret sauce is in how they play without the ball but they have an interesting approach in possession too.
They attack wide areas – the right slightly more than the left but each side much more than through the middle. They play the third-lowest number of short passes per game in League Two and attempt the joint highest number of crosses, 23 per game on average.
Walsall are creating exactly the opportunities they want and both Lowe and Matt have been feasting. The team’s shots are predominantly from central positions and inside the penalty area. They’re also second in the league, behind Bromley, when it comes to the number of set piece goals. Bromley have scored 16 of them, Walsall 13. That’s more than a quarter of their goals this season.
The joint-highest average number of shots on target per game – in a team with quality finishers up top – is the natural consequence.
In November, Ben Mayhew ran his scatter graphics for League Two. Walsall’s eight-match winning run started two days later but the summary was indicative of what was to come.
Mayhew’s data revealed that Walsall had a busy attack and quiet defence, and that both were performing well. In other words, they’re effective at both ends of the pitch.
So, tactically, Walsall might be slightly surprising because they’re achieving that with low possession. They are undeniably and ruthlessly effective.
Walsall probably won’t have been surprised by Lowe’s departure. Stoke have problems in the striking department and Robins was always going to review his personnel options as soon as he set foot in the Potteries.
Sadler and his team have put themselves in the driving seat for promotion but the next four months will take their tactical approach to its limit without Lowe sticking in another 15 goals.
Replacing their lost teenage hotshot will be top of the agenda. If they can’t do that, the Saddlers will have to fall back on the way they play to tie up a third-tier return.
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