Premier League Form Guide: Newcastle United aiming to extend their winning run
The Magpies want to keep their run of form going. Leicester City desperately need to end theirs.
After a bumper midweek programme, the top flight of English football cranks right back into action on Saturday lunchtime.
The Premier League fixture list this weekend is full of exciting games, whether it’s attacking teams going head to head on Tyneside or Liverpool playing away while the chasing pack have winnable games at home.
Here’s what to look out for over the next three days.
Newcastle United v AFC Bournemouth
The Magpies are flying. There’s no other way to put it – Newcastle United have won their last six Premier League matches on the bounce and have clawed their way into the top four thanks to the goals of Alexander Isak, the imperious performances of Sandro Tonali and literally everything else.
The top four in the league is also the top four (and in order) when ranked by expected goals against (xGA). With AFC Bournemouth behind only Liverpool and Chelsea in the expected goals (xG) list, this one could be a lunchtime thriller.
Despite their success in terms of results, Bournemouth’s xG is somewhat overshadowed by the fact that they have scored 8.8 goals fewer than expected when penalties are excluded. That’s the worst performance in the division but it doesn’t seem to be holding them back much.
Brentford v Liverpool
Premier League leaders Liverpool will fancy their chances at Brentford on Saturday. They’re well clear at the top with a game in hand despite drawing the last couple. Their xG of 46.0 for the season is the highest in the division, their xGA of 18.0 the lowest. They are formidable.
But this is no foregone conclusion and not just because Diogo Jota is a doubt. Brentford haven’t won in their last three league games at the Gtech Community Stadium but they remain as high as third in the home table. Both the Bees and Liverpool have won 23 points at home. Only Arsenal have won more.
These two met back in August, long before Brentford’s resolute refusal to win away from home had become clear. Liverpool won 2-0 at Anfield thanks to goals from Luis Díaz and Mohamed Salah. Brentford won this fixture in January 2023. If Transfermarkt is to be believed, it’s their only win over Liverpool since the Second World War.
Leicester City v Fulham
Steve Cooper was sacked by Leicester City on 24th November, twelve league games into his first season. Five days later, they appointed Ruud van Nistelrooy. He’s been in charge for eight of the nine league matches since then.
They won his first. They drew his second. Then they lost six in a row. The Foxes have 14 points after 21 matches and are being propped up only by Southampton. The bottom two have both changed their managers and it doesn’t seem to have done either of them much good.
Fulham’s recent form has faltered too. After an impressive start to the season, Marco Silva’s Cottagers have fumbled their way through the winter. They’ve won one and lost one of their last seven Premier League games. They’ll be back to winning ways soon.
West Ham United v Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace didn’t win a Premier League fixture until 27th October. Unlike most of the teams around them at the foot of the table, the Eagles stuck with their manager. Oliver Glasner showed last season that Palace were a handy side and, even without Michael Olise, their form has recovered.
The only team to beat them in the last ten league games – albeit heavily and at Selhurst Park – were Arsenal. Fifteenth place is the modest reward but they’re as close to ninth as they are to Everton directly below them.
Graham Potter is now in charge at West Ham United after they dispensed with Julen Lopetegui. They’re two points ahead of Palace and have only been beaten in the league by Liverpool and Manchester City in the last seven.
Arsenal v Aston Villa
The teatime kick-off on Saturday is a fixture that’s acquired a bit of bite in recent years. Aston Villa have pinched games against Arsenal on more than a few occasions but the Gunners did a real number on Unai Emery’s side in the reverse fixture in August. It was Villa’s only defeat until November.
Donyell Malen has been added to Emery and Emiliano Martinez in Villa’s former Arsenal ranks and is available for selection after missing Villa’s win at Everton.
Their hope will be that Malen adds to Villa’s attacking balance and firepower and they’re going to need it. Arsenal are one of only two teams in the Premier League with an xGA value lower than a goal per game and have conceded fewer than anyone else.
Everton v Tottenham Hotspur
David Moyes is back at Everton and inherited a team who even now have conceded the fewest goals of anyone outside the top eight. The problem the new manager has to solve is that his team can’t score for, well, you can finish that thought yourself.
Everton have the lowest total xG in the Premier League – at 19.2, it’s under a goal per game. To somehow then under-perform that is an almost impressively bad effort. They’re top of the bottom five but it’s a long way up even to Palace just one place above.
Tottenham Hotspur have been good entertainment for the rest of us for most of the season, lurching from a big win to a loss and back again, Ange Postecoglou’s absolute absence of pragmatism writ large in their results. Injuries are having an effect. Spurs are now sixth in the xG rankings and dropping. Expectation and reality are not converging where Spurs needed them to.
Manchester United v Brighton & Hove Albion
Another of Sunday’s 2.00pm kick-offs takes Brighton & Hove Albion to Old Trafford in what should be positive spirits. After eight games without a win, the Seagulls helped themselves to a chippy 2-0 victory over Ipswich Town at Portman Road on Thursday night.
Brighton shaded the xG in five of those eight matches but, of the five, had to settle for four draws. They seldom lose cheaply, which makes them a tricky proposition for Manchester United, whose recent reach appears limited to only the lowest hanging fruit or teams at the very top.
That’s a conundrum for Ruben Amorim. He needs to find a way to make his players care about beating Brighton and put out a team that’s good enough to do it.
Amad Diallo has scored their last four Premier League goals. On average those goals have earned United a point apiece.
Nottingham Forest v Southampton
Nuno Espirito Santo’s Nottingham Forest just keep on rolling. The team in third place in the Premier League table are in the bottom six for xG and you have to say that’s just magnificent. Only Arsenal have conceded fewer and Forest’s counter-attack is doing enough at the other end to win them games.
Forest are scared of nobody. I thought they were fantastic against Liverpool in the week in a fixture that would have made most teams have it away on their toes.
They certainly won’t have any fear of Southampton. The Saints are miles adrift at the bottom and their underlying statistics are every bit as dreadful as their performance in reality. At 49.1, their xGA is the highest in the Premier League by far. They’ve conceded 47 of the real thing.
Their performance against xG at the other end is also the worst in the league by a distance. Even with the fourth-worst xG, they’ve scored nine fewer than expected.
Ipswich Town v Manchester City
The penultimate game of the weekend is Manchester City’s visit to Portman Road to play an Ipswich Town team who were dealt some harsh truths at home in midweek.
City and Ipswich have both spent a fair amount of time outside the Premier League since it began and this is only their tenth meeting in the competition. Of the previous nine, the only draw came in March 1994.
The scorers that day were David Linighan, Boncho Genchev, Paul Walsh and Uwe Rösler. There’s only been one Premier League game between these two in which either of the teams failed to score.
Ipswich have drawn seven times in the league this season, City five times. Erling Haaland’s hat-trick made short work of Ipswich in August, though. With his new contract running beyond the life expectancy of civilised society, the Norwegian is set to torment them for some time to come.
Chelsea v Wolverhampton Wanderers
The Monday night game looks a tough one for Wolverhampton Wanderers and they could be in the relegation zone by the time it comes around. Stamford Bridge isn’t where they’d have wanted to go to dig themselves out of that particular hole.
Chelsea’s xG is exactly two per game. Liverpool are the only other team with two or more and Chelsea have scored just shy of that two goals per game mark. Unfortunately for the Blues, just as soon as five consecutive wins put them in the title conversation, five games without a win took them back out of it again.
Wolves enjoyed a little boost with a pair of wins to nil over Christmas but have run into another troublesome spell since. A draw with Tottenham was followed by defeats by Forest and Newcastle, two of the top four. Wolves are outscoring their xG more emphatically than anyone else. If you can work them out, you’re a better analyst than me.
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