Premier League Form Guide: Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur face the ultimate test of their failings – each other
Arsenal and Liverpool back in action against relegation battlers this weekend
When I was growing up in Bournemouth, the few people who claimed to support the local football team in those days were devoid of rivalries.
Southampton were their foe of choice, of course, but the Saints were distracted by opponents to the south-east who they despised more and actually played against occasionally. The sense of futile and unrequited enmity was palpable.
The Cherries go to Southampton this weekend as the south coast’s premier club. Funny old game.
Brighton & Hove Albion v Chelsea
There have been a few teams this season that have been difficult to gauge. At the moment, Brighton & Hove Albion fit the bill. They lost their last two Premier League games. They won the two before that. They drew the two before that.
Fabian Hürzeler’s Seagulls followed a 7-0 hoofing by Nottingham Forest with a win in the FA Cup Fourth Round, and they take on the same opposition at the same venue in this week’s Friday night game in the league.
Chelsea aren’t much easier to grasp. The Blues have played in patches this season and have three teams hot on their heels in the fight for fourth place. They’ve been shown 71 yellow cards in 24 games, the highest tally in the Premier League.
Leicester City v Arsenal
Saturday’s lunchtime kick-off is the Alan Smith derby between Leicester City and Arsenal. Only Leicester and the other teams in the bottom three have an expected goals (xG) average lower than 1.00 per game and the Foxes have had the fewest shots on target per 90 minutes in the division.
If that’s going to change this weekend, it won’t come easy. Well-rested but injury-ravaged Arsenal are the only team in the Premier League whose average shot distance against is outside the penalty area – 18.5 yards, to be precise – which helps to explain how they’ve conceded the fewest goals.
Leicester defender James Justin is, improbably, responsible for nearly 10% of the goals conceded by the Gunners. His unlikely brace made it 2-2 in the reverse fixture at the Emirates Stadium before two stoppage-time goals gave Arsenal a 4-2 win.
Aston Villa v Ipswich Town
In July, Villa Park will host Black Sabbath and a whole host of heavy metal royalty, followed by Kendrick Lamar five days later. On this Saturday in February, it will host the meeting of the highest and lowest tackle success percentages in the Premier League.
It’s a good thing for Villa that theirs is the former. Only Wolverhampton Wanderers give up a higher goals per shot average than the team backstopped by the world’s number one. They’re a different prospect in possession. Thanks in no small part to John McGinn and Youri Tielemans, Villa are the Premier League’s most fouled side.
Things are looking grim for Ipswich Town. Their reported transfer spend last summer was £106.5 million. They later added Jaden Philogene from Villa for a fee in the region of £23 million, along with goalkeeper Alex Palmer and loanees Ben Godfrey and Julio Enciso.
For a team on a run of four consecutive Premier League defeats and under-performing even the division’s lowest xG, that’s the kind of outlay that needs to start bearing fruit.
Fulham v Nottingham Forest
Fulham have completed the most crosses into the box in the Premier League this season, Nottingham Forest the least. Isn’t that fun?
Forest managed the considerable achievement of a twelve-goal swing from one fixture to the next in their last two Premier League outings, walloping Brighton 7-0 to shake off a heavy loss against Bournemouth before clawing their way past Exeter City in the FA Cup in midweek.
The last time Fulham and Forest drew was a 1-1 draw in the Championship in September 2016. Since then, Forest have won just three of twelve fixtures against the Cottagers in the top two divisions. Raúl Jiménez’s penalty was the only goal of the game at the City Ground in September.
Manchester City v Newcastle United
It’s fifth against sixth at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday afternoon as Manchester City welcome Newcastle United.
If you discount penalties (which you should only do for illustrative purposes because they, like, totally count) the top two players in the Premier League for goals per 90 minutes are Alexander Isak with 0.80 goals and Erling Haaland with 0.76 goals.
Only the top two teams have scored more goals than City, who were unbeaten in six league games before a 5-1 loss at Arsenal took them into FA Cup Fourth Round weekend red-faced.
Their season hadn’t yet come off the rails last time they played Newcastle. That was straight after Arsenal too, but a 1-1 draw at St James’ Park maintained an unbeaten start that would last until November.
Southampton v AFC Bournemouth
Are you still tracking Southampton’s gradual regression to normality in the pass completion rate league table after Russell Martin and his tactical masterplan were shown the door? Of course you are. They’re still third behind Manchester City and Chelsea. Mad.
On Saturday, the doomed Saints face a Bournemouth side whose excellent form is holding firm despite the fact they’re under-performing the non-penalty expected goals (npxG) by 5.1 goals, more than anyone else in the league.
The Cherries are terrific to watch but a lot of the good work is being done at the back. They give up a league-lowest 0.22 goals per shot on target and, between them, Bournemouth’s goalkeepers (Kepa Arrizabalaga and Mark Travers) have now kept out ten goals more than expected. They’re the top two in the league by that measure.
If you’ve been itching to see what it looks like when the Premier League’s worst and best ball recovery teams collide, Saturday is your lucky day.
West Ham United v Brentford
East meets West in London on Saturday as Brentford head across the city to play West Ham United at the London Stadium. They last met in September, when Bryan Mbeumo’s first-minute strike was cancelled out in the second half by Tomáš Souček.
No team in the Premier League has a better percentage of shots on target than Brentford, nor a worse percentage than West Ham. The Bees have scored thirteen more goals than their hosts as a result.
Graham Potter’s Hammers are winless in three in the league and have won only once since the former Chelsea and Brighton manager was appointed. Although they have a comfortable ten-point cushion between them and the relegation zone – effectively eleven with goal difference – Potter will be targeting a rather higher placing than sixteenth.
Crystal Palace v Everton
Only one team in the Premier League have drawn ten of their games this season. If Crystal Palace and Everton split the points at Selhurst Park in Saturday’s teatime kick-off, Brighton will be joined by two more.
Everton’s ninth was Wednesday’s barnstorming Merseyside derby against Liverpool, in which James Tarkowski volleyed in a sensational equaliser deep in stoppage time to send Goodison Park over the edge. It was quite the occasion. That won’t have escaped the notice of Oliver Glasner and the Eagles.
The Toffees’ 2-1 win over Palace in September was their first Premier League win of the season after four losses and a draw. Dwight McNeil scored both goals as Sean Dyche’s Everton came from behind to claim all three points. He hasn’t scored since and has missed the last couple of months with a somewhat mysterious knee injury.
Liverpool v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Liverpool were furious to be on the wrong end of the incredible conclusion at Goodison on Wednesday and will presumably be led from the technical area by John Heitinga after both Arne Slot and his assistant Sipke Hulshoff were sent off after the final whistle.
The Reds needn’t be knocked off-course. They’re seven points clear of Arsenal and in formidable form. They’re out-scoring by far the best xG per 90 in the top division and have still lost just once in the league. They’d won the last three before the derby and nobody in the first-choice squad will give much of a toss about the FA Cup exit.
Sunday’s opponents Wolverhampton Wanderers head to Anfield outside the relegation zone courtesy of a solid home win over Aston Villa, their first league victory since Boxing Day.
Vítor Pereira’s team have scored 8.3 goals higher than npxG, the biggest over-performance in the division, but the finishing of Jørgen Strand Larsen is becoming a Premier League curio. The Norwegian has scored just seven times from the league’s highest percentage of shots on target. 76 players have scored more per shot on target this season.
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United
Where to even begin with this absolute mess of a fixture? Sunday’s main feature between the Premier League’s great big pair of swinging plums is bound to be worth watching, if only to see how on earth they both manage to get funnier at the same time.
Tottenham Hotspur have been picked out for having a positive goal difference while occupying a relatively low position on the league table, but it should also be noted that their expected goal difference is now in the red.
Their visitors, Manchester United, have scored 7.5 goals fewer than their npxG for the season suggests. That’s the biggest under-performance in the Premier League and is contributing significantly to the Red Devils’ flagging form under Ruben Amorim.
Please share the Premier League Form Guide using the button below.
I am available for writing commissions and freelance opportunities. Contact me directly and we’ll talk.
That’s your lot. Thanks for reading. Please subscribe if you enjoyed it and haven’t done so yet.