Premier League Form Guide: Liverpool and Manchester United geared up for derby clash
Reds take on Red Devils and Wolves look to pull up Tricky Trees
The Premier League schedule returns to some sort of normality this weekend before the FA Cup Third Round knocks it back off-kilter.
Liverpool will fancy their chances against Manchester United in the weekend’s most eye-catching fixture. The league leaders have more than twice as many points as their old rivals.
Here’s what to expect from that and nine other Premier League fixtures between now and Monday night.
Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United
Newcastle United go into Saturday’s lunchtime kick-off as one of the Premier League’s form sides. They’ve won the last four, scoring thirteen goals and conceding none. Alexander Isak has scored six goals in those matches and is now the league’s third-highest goalscorer both overall and on a per-90 basis. The Magpies are back in a big bad way.
Tottenham Hotspur continue to live up to their baffling promise, boasting the second-highest goal tally in the Premier League despite starting the weekend in the bottom half.
They’re outscoring the league’s fourth-highest expected goals (xG) value by four full goals but haven’t won in three games. Bonkers.
AFC Bournemouth v Everton
It’s now seven Premier League matches without defeat for Andoni Iraola and high-flying AFC Bournemouth.
The Cherries have the fourth highest non-penalty expected goals value (npxG) in the division but have under-scored it by a massive 8.7 goals over nineteen games so far. Which way they move to balance those numbers will define the second half of their season.
Everton are underscoring their xG too, and it’s the league’s worst xG already. They’re winless in four Premier League games, during which they’ve scored just once. Only Brighton & Hove Albion have drawn more matches (nine) than Everton, Crystal Palace and Fulham (eight apiece).
Aston Villa v Leicester City
It’s fair to say that Unai Emery and Aston Villa still have a few things left to figure out. Newcastle are one of those things. Keeping a clean sheet is another – Villa have only two in the Premier League all season, against Southampton and Manchester United. Write your own jokes.
They’ve had a few problems with Leicester City historically too, but the Foxes have concerns of their own. They’ve lost the last four. Three of them were against Newcastle, Liverpool and Manchester City, but they lost 3-0 at home to Wolverhampton Wanderers before Christmas and that’s enough to worry anyone.
Nobody has conceded more goals and only the others in the relegation zone have a higher expected goals against (xGA) for the season.
Crystal Palace v Chelsea
Hands up if you fancied Chelsea to give Liverpool a run for their money at the top of the table before they lost to Fulham on Boxing Day and Ipswich Town on Monday afternoon. I know I did.
They had all of the ball at Portman Road, racking up twenty shots with a combined xG of 2.00 – they scored none. That’s a blip. The manner of the Fulham defeat will have taught Enzo Maresca much more about his team.
On Saturday afternoon the Blues are off to Crystal Palace, whose under-performance versus xG is worse only than Southampton and the aforementioned Bournemouth. The Eagles are at least starting to find their way. They’re up to fifteenth having lost just once each in the months of November and December.
Manchester City v West Ham United
Manchester City conceded 34 goals in the Premier League last season. Halfway through 2024/25, they’ve conceded 26 and scored 32, which is miles under 50% of their 2023/24 tally. Their last win in the league was something of a false dawn. They won again on Sunday. Will victory against Leicester finally correct their course?
Fun fact: West Ham United are the team in the Premier League whose goals conceded is closest to their xGA value. Okay, not that fun.
But when coupled with the fact that their xGA is the fourth-highest in the division, it starts to pose questions like why the Hammers have faced the fourth-highest number of shots and whether the fact that their opponents have the fourth-lowest percentage of shots on target is indicative of an imminent rise in goals against, or West Ham’s ability to prevent high quality chances.
(It’s the first one.)
Southampton v Brentford
Brentford and Southampton have won one game in their last twelve combined. Unsurprisingly, it’s the Bees who are responsible for that. Saints still have just one win and it was more than two months ago. It goes without saying that six points from half a season is historically bad stuff.
The Bees started the season as a formidable team at home and a soft touch in away games. They’re now four games without a win having played three of the current top four. They’re still yet to win away from home. Only opponents Southampton are also without a victory on the road.
Brighton & Hove Albion v Arsenal
The 5.30pm kick-off on Saturday sees the Premier League’s draw specialists, Brighton, welcome Arsenal to the Amex Stadium. The Seagulls have dropped to tenth thanks to seven games without a win, five of them draws. They’d take a point from this game right now.
The Gunners have put a run together once again and have climbed back into second place. Bukayo Saka’s injury threatened to knock them off course but they’ve averaged two goals per game – and, crucially, three points per game – since losing him against Crystal Palace before Christmas.
Fulham v Ipswich Town
Sunday’s early game will be a treat for us all. Fulham are one of the Premier League’s tales of recruitment done right and they’re reaping the benefits, losing just once in their last eleven games.
Okay, it was against Wolves. And sure, it was a weird sort of thrashing that now seems very much out of character. But it was a speed bump. The Cottagers are loving life by the Thames.
Opponents Ipswich Town are in the relegation zone to start the year but aren’t going down without a fight. They have the league’s lowest non-penalty xG (npxG) but are getting closer to matching it with actual goals. On a per-game basis, they’re as near as dammit on the money. It’s goals at the other end that are causing problems.
Liverpool v Manchester United
Manchester United are a shambles. They’ve won just six Premier League matches this season and just one of their last six. Ruben Amorim knows they’re sliding towards a relegation battle and already looks like a man who knows the true meaning of regret. They will surely get something right soon but it’s difficult to know when or where.
That one win was against Manchester City because of course it was. You know what happens next.
Except… Liverpool are just astoundingly good. They’ve scored the most goals, created the highest quality chances and conceded the joint fewest goals along with Arsenal. If they win on Sunday they’ll hit the halfway point on track for 96 points at the end of the season.
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Nottingham Forest
Of the Premier League’s little knot of struggling teams who’ve pulled the trigger and made a managerial change this season, it’s Wolverhampton Wanderers who seem to have benefited the most so far, albeit modestly so. Vítor Pereira has led Wolves to three games unbeaten, a run that will be under serious threat on Monday night.
In Nottingham Forest, Wolves face the league’s form team. They’ve won their last five fixtures and have now taken root in the top four, a quite remarkable turn of events at the City Ground that seems to be built on a solid shape and monstrous central defenders as well as highly competent attacking players in abundance.
More than anyone else, Morgan Gibbs-White is in scintillating form. He’ll be right up for this one too. Good luck, Wolves. You’re going to need it.
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