Premier League Form Guide 4th October 2024
Your Friday lunchtime Premier League preview
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Crystal Palace v Liverpool
Winless Crystal Palace have it all to do against early frontrunners Liverpool in the Premier League’s Saturday lunchtime kick-off. The Eagles are under-performing against a relatively modest expected goals value while Liverpool are in tremendous nick at both ends of the pitch.
These two last met in April, when Palace’s excellent form at the end of 2023/24 was accelerated by an early Eberechi Eze goal, the only one of the game at Anfield.
Arsenal v Southampton
Punters at the Emirates will be expecting a home banker as one of the Premier League’s unbeaten high-fliers welcome a Southampton team with only one point to their name and ranked 19th in the division for goals scored versus expected goals. There are no such concerns for the Gunners, who sit in third having already played Manchester City, Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur.
The ignominy of Monday’s defeat in Dorset won’t have been lost on Saints manager Russell Martin but he’ll probably have to wait until the other side of the international break to eke out a real response.
Brentford v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Things don’t get any easier for leaky Wolverhampton Wanderers, whose 16 goals conceded is the worst in the Premier League. Brentford have scored in the first minute of their last three league games and there’s no doubt Wolves will have prepared specifically to avoid a fourth. The remaining 89 minutes will need attention too.
The Bees, meanwhile, are winless in those three games. Their Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United fixtures went more or less as expected irrespective of the early strikes. This might follow suit and go Brentford’s way.
Leicester City v AFC Bournemouth
Steve Cooper is still looking for his first Premier League win as Leicester City’s manager and will have targeted Saturday’s home fixture against mid-table Bournemouth as a possible candidate. The last two defeats for the Cherries were against Chelsea and Liverpool, however, and Monday night’s thumping of Southampton showed that their confidence hasn’t been knocked.
Leicester need something to build theirs and they could do worse than starting at the back. Their two clean sheets this season came in the League Cup against Tranmere Rovers in a comfortable win and Walsall in a dismal 0-0 performance before they went through on penalties.
Manchester City v Fulham
Losing Rodri when Liverpool are top and Arsenal are unbeaten is a blow Manchester City would rather have done without. The Spaniard’s record is impressive, of course, but – to quote a former Fulham manager – let’s not take the piss, here. City are also unbeaten and that’s because they’re extremely dangerous and tend to find an answer, Rodri or not.
Fulham visit them having won twice on the spin, while City have drawn their last two. Fun fact: the champions have failed to score with exactly 100 shots in the Premier League this season. It’s the other 14 that will be on Marco Silva’s mind.
West Ham United v Ipswich Town
With one Premier League win between them, West Ham United and Ipswich Town haven’t had the ideal start. The Hammers claimed that win way back in August and since then it’s been Ipswich who’ve had the slight edge out of these two. Kieran McKenna can be encouraged by his team’s performance against Aston Villa last weekend but Portman Road probably played its part.
The London Stadium won’t be quite so accommodating. If West Ham can find their shooting boots and start generating higher value chances more regularly, the day of a home fixture against a winless promoted team might be the day it happens.
Everton v Newcastle United
The Toffees versus the Magpies has often been one of the Premier League’s tastier morsels but this particular fixture is more intriguing than mouthwatering. Everton made a woeful start in so many ways but they took a couple of tiny steps forward by drawing at Leicester and beating Palace. It’s a start.
Newcastle United might be narrow favourites in this Saturday teatime kick-off but their last away game was a defeat at Fulham in which they gave up a substantial xG, as they did at Bournemouth in August, and paid the price.
Aston Villa v Manchester United
Aston Villa don’t beat Manchester United. They just don’t. They beat Bayern Munich, no problem. But Manchester United? Rarer than rocking horse shit. United played a day later than Villa in Europe this week and needed a stoppage time equaliser against Porto. Villa have scored more, won more and created more than the Red Devils. It means nothing because the football gods say so.
Erik ten Hag’s men have by far the worst performance against their own xG in the Premier League this season. You’d expect that to level off a little bit sooner or later, and a win at a collectively hungover Villa Park might do the job.
Chelsea v Nottingham Forest
Chelsea, then. As laughing stocks go they’re getting less funny with every passing game. The Premier League’s top scorers have won three games on the bounce with next to no fuss thanks to goals from Christopher Nkunku, Nicolas Jackson and Cole Palmer. Palmer scored their last five goals in the space of 58 minutes of football.
Nottingham Forest, then, will have to look to last season for encouragement this weekend. This fixture last September was a gutsy 1-0 win for Forest, who scored early in the second half through Anthony Elanga.
Brighton & Hove Albion v Tottenham Hotspur
It’s ninth versus eighth at the Amex with Tottenham Hotspur arriving with their tails up after demolishing Manchester United on Sunday and winning at Ferencvaros in the Europa League last night. Ange Postecoglou promises football with the handbrake off and Spurs are delivering that at the moment. They have the highest xG in the Premier League by a whole goal and the wins are starting to follow.
Brighton & Hove Albion’s recent fortunes are less positive. After seeing off Everton and Manchester United in style back in August, they’re now winless in four league games.
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Poor palace, eh? Should have re-signed Zaha on loan after losing Olise in my opinion