Premier League Form Guide 20th December 2024
Your Friday Premier League preview. The last of 2024.
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Aston Villa v Manchester City
While Unai Emery and Aston Villa have somewhat righted the ship, save for some pretty honking results at the end of Champions League weeks, the idea that their goalkeeper is the best in the world is given lie by (a) watching him and (b) statistics.
Villa have conceded 5.8 more goals than expected in the Premier League this season. That’s not always a goalkeeper issue, but Villa’s performance – the goalkeeper’s performance – against post-shot expected goals per 90 minutes (PSxG/90) is the second-worst in the division. That’s goalkeeping.
Manchester City’s win against Nottingham Forest looks more like a blip with every passing match. They sit outside the top four with 16 matches played, a state of affairs unheard of in recent seasons. One win in seven league wins will do that sort of thing so it’s fortunate for City they have a banker in the Saturday lunchtime fixture.
Brentford v Nottingham Forest
This week’s fun Brentford fact is that they have the Premier League’s best ratio of shots on target versus total shots, hitting the mark with 44.8% of their efforts. Only Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur have scored more goals, and Brentford’s 172 shots is markedly lower than both of them – 253 and 249 respectively.
Nottingham Forest are flying under Nuno Espirito Santo, winning half of their games so far in 2024/25 and six of the last nine. They haven’t drawn in the league since early October and their knack for winning rather than losing close games by a single goal has them sitting pretty in fourth place.
This week’s fun Forest fact? They’ve never beaten Brentford in the Premier League. Of their four meetings in the top flight, two have been draws at the City Ground and two have been Brentford home wins.
Ipswich Town v Newcastle United
Let’s be absolutely clear about this: beating Wolverhampton Wanderers at Molineux this season is like taking candy from a baby, eating the candy in front of the baby, then burping in its stupid baby face. That notwithstanding, Ipswich Town tucked into their second Premier League win of the season last weekend to stay above Wolves in the relegation zone.
On Saturday they take on a Newcastle United side who’ve also enjoyed their week after giving Leicester City a damned good chasing at St James’ Park last Saturday. They followed that by beating Brentford handsomely in the League Cup on Wednesday and head to East Anglia in good spirits.
Two of the Premier League’s most fun strikers will go head to head in this one. Ipswich’s Liam Delap is a battering ram with marshmallow feet while Newcastle’s Alexander Isak is averaging a goal every other game in the league and is always good value viewing for the neutral.
West Ham United v Brighton & Hove Albion
Winning the ‘Sacked in the Morning’ derby against Wolves gave Julen Lopetegui a stay of execution and he grasped it sort of limply with one hand by guiding West Ham United to a 1-1 draw at AFC Bournemouth on Monday night. It was so nearly a win.
The Hammers played both of those games with Jarrod Bowen up front in the aftermath of Michail Antonio’s accident. He scored and assisted against Wolves and four points from six isn’t too shabby a short-term return. But Danny Ings came on in one match and Niclas Füllkrug in the other. You’d think Lopetegui will need more from one or both of them sooner rather than later.
Saturday’s opponents are Brighton & Hove Albion, winless in four and slipping down to mid-table. That doesn’t sound too bad, but those four games? Southampton, Fulham, Leicester and Crystal Palace, who coasted to victory in the M23 derby at the Amex last weekend.
Crystal Palace v Arsenal
That win over the Seagulls dragged the Eagles up two places in the Premier League table. They’ve spent half the season so far in the relegation zone but they’re now up to their highest placing if you exclude the first weekend, which you should.
It’s a modest rise, perhaps, but it’s come off the back of five league matches unbeaten, a run that also included draws with Villa, Newcastle and Manchester City, and a win at Ipswich. The bulk of Palace’s underlying data suggest they’re in decent shape as the team at the top of the bottom six.
Arsenal’s two Premier League defeats in three games feel like a long time ago now. Losses at Bournemouth and Newcastle knocked the Gunners out of their stride only briefly but they’ll be keen to turn recent draws into wins to stay in touch at the top.
Everton v Chelsea
On Sunday, the team with the Premier League’s lowest expected goals (xG) at 14.8 host the team with the highest at 34.2 – Chelsea have outscored that high xG and are the highest scorers in the division. They visit Everton as the form side too, winning their last five on the spin.
Everton might well be wary of Chelsea but they probably won’t be scared of them. The Toffees held Arsenal to a goalless draw at the Emirates last time out, offering nothing going forward but limiting Mikel Arteta’s side to an open-play xG of 1.05 and five shots on target.
Chelsea have reeled Liverpool in over the last few weeks, winning for fun while the Reds have drawn two matches and had another postponed. They give up chances but it’s causing them no trouble whatsoever. With Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson both firing, out-scoring the other lot is just fine for the Blues.
Fulham v Southampton
Poor old Russell Martin. His tactical approach and his rigid adherence to it won him no fans at Southampton but he doesn’t seem a bad sort of a bloke. Five points on the doorstep of Christmas tells its own story, though, and the Saints are the only Premier League averaging fewer than three shots on target per match.
The sack was inevitable and Southampton will face Fulham on Sunday with interim manager Simon Rusk in the dugout one year and one week after he joined Nottingham Forest as a set piece coach.
The Cottagers have lost only once in the league since the October international break, a period that spans eight games. They got walloped at home by Wolves, remarkably, but are unbeaten in December and have drawn with Arsenal and Liverpool in their last two outings.
Leicester City v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolves have made their managerial move too, sacking Gary O’Neil with the team on nine points and in honking form after a revival was fleetingly hinted at but came to nothing. Four losses out of four spelled the end for O’Neil but it’s the people who picked him and later popped him that really need to be answering questions.
New head coach Vítor Pereira takes over the team with the Premier League’s best performance against xG, scoring 7.3 more goals than expected so far this season. But they’ve also conceded 9.8 goals more than expected, the worst by a country mile. 9.8 goals against above xGA over 16 games is almost as ridiculous in and of itself as the resulting 40 goals conceded.
It’s Leicester City next for Wolves. In the unlikely event of an away win, they’d move to within two points of the Foxes and squeeze the bottom four very tightly indeed. Okay, not Southampton – and they’re the only team with a higher xGA than Leicester’s.
Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth
If you’ve ever doubted that football is a funny old game, this is the fixture to consider. When I was growing up in Bournemouth, the very idea of the town’s club ever playing a league game at Old Trafford was laughable. Last December they did, as they now do regularly, and they won 3-0.
Bournemouth have the second highest xG in the Premier League (32.4 in total for the season so far) and are under-performing it by more (8.4 goals below xG) than any other team in the division. Andoni Iraola won’t care. The Cherries are in sixth place and have won three and drawn one of their last four games.
Manchester United are seven places below them in the league table despite winning the Manchester derby last Sunday. Before that, they lost their last game at home against Forest. After it, they lost 4-3 at Tottenham Hotspur in an impressively stupid League Cup quarter-final.
Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool
Spurs have one of the toughest assignments the Premier League has to offer this weekend. They take on Liverpool at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in the division’s final game before Christmas. The Reds have conceded five times in their two draws and the promise of goals will give Ange Postecoglou all sorts of ideas about catching them out.
Tottenham, well, they just aren’t right. They rack up almost six shots on target per game, the highest average in the top flight this season. They are tenth in the league but only the top two have a better goal difference. Only Chelsea have scored more.
Arne Slot isn’t panicking over a couple of draws and rightly so. Liverpool have a game in hand on everyone except Everton but are two points clear at the top with the Premier League’s best defensive record despite some recent leakiness. Liverpool have won more and lost fewer than any other team. For now, at least, it really is as simple as that.
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