Premier League Form Guide 13th December 2024
Your Friday lunchtime Premier League preview
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Arsenal v Everton
After the minor wobble that left them off the pace of the top two, Arsenal have picked up eleven points from the last fifteen available in the Premier League and only dropped points in West London against Chelsea and Fulham.
The Gunners have the Premier League’s second-lowest expected goals against (xGA) value and indeed its second-lowest number of actual goals conceded. They’ve conceded fewer goals per game than Liverpool, who’ve played one game fewer.
Liverpool’s last opponents should have been Everton but Storm Darragh saw to that. Before Ashley Young’s free kick to launch the Toffees’ smashing of Wolverhampton Wanderers for four goals, they hadn’t scored for 370 minutes. That was their third win of the season and all three have been against teams currently below Everton and in the bottom five.
Liverpool v Fulham
As for Liverpool, what is even left to be said? The Premier League leaders have won eleven matches out of fourteen and are four points clear of Chelsea with a game in hand, laughing in the face of a managerial change and constant speculation about the future of their most productive attacking player. A club of Liverpool’s size running away at the top isn’t much of a fairytale but it is, in context, a remarkable turn of events.
The next team to have a pop at them on Saturday will be Fulham. The Cottagers have been in solid form since inexplicably losing to Wolves, drawing away against Tottenham Hotspur and at home against Arsenal either side of a 3-1 win against Brighton & Hove Albion.
This fixture has been no friend to Fulham. They’ve beaten Liverpool once in their last fourteen attempts in all competitions, a run that goes back to 2012/13 – they did the double over the Reds the season before. The sole victory since was the result of a Mario Lemina goal at an empty Anfield in March 2021, a win overseen by manager Scott Parker en route to relegation.
Newcastle United v Leicester City
Now in the bottom half of the table and winless in four games after a run that included the collection of one point from back-to-back matches against West Ham United and Crystal Palace, Newcastle United’s two games before Christmas are surely must-wins for manager Eddie Howe.
Next week they’re away at Ipswich Town. This Saturday it’s a home game against Leicester City that looks eminently winnable at face value but could easily prove a touch slippery. The Foxes have already made their managerial move and are unbeaten in two and counting. They’ll need a much better win-rate than one in five to climb away from the drop zone.
With Liverpool heading to the King Power on Boxing Day, the next two games against the Magpies and Wolves represent a chance to improve that record but it won’t be easy.
Leicester give up chances, shots and goals with the best of them and are currently outside the bottom three in no small part because they’re outsourcing their expected goals value (xG) significantly at the other end.
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Ipswich Town
Even at this relatively early stage of the Premier League season, this meeting of two teams in the current bottom three feels significant. Wolverhampton Wanderers and Ipswich Town are difficult to separate.
They’ve both got nine points from fifteen games and they’ve both lost their last three. Wolves have won a game more but have conceded a league-leading 38 goals. Ipswich may be harder to score against but are one of only three teams averaging less than a goal per game. Wolves are conceding more goals than their opponents’ xG suggests, but Ipswich are allowing the second-highest non-penalty xG (npxG) in the division.
My sense that Wolves would be disappointed not to have sprung a surprise or two in their difficult fixtures to open the season but had reverted to the mean in their games with a lower theoretical degree of difficulty has been knocked into a cocked hat by consecutive losses to Bournemouth, Everton and West Ham.
Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa
The Saturday teatime kick-off also sends two teams locked together in the table into battle. Aston Villa visit the City Ground having won their last two in the Premier League and squeaking a vital Champions League win in Leipzig that exposed some defensive issues that must have driven Unai Emery bonkers.
Villa are back up to sixth thanks to their own mini-revival and Brighton’s short winless run. Forest, meanwhile, have won two of their last three since losing to Newcastle and Arsenal in November. They’ve won five of their last eight in the league.
Forest striker Chris Wood is the fourth-highest goalscorer in the Premier League this season with ten so far, and is behind only Bryan Mbeumo when it comes to out-scoring his individual xG – he’s scored nearly four more than expected and hits the target with three shots in five.
Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace
The first of Sunday’s derby matches is the least local but the most acrimonious. The others feature teams with other favourite enemies but Brighton & Hove Albion and Crystal Palace only really have side-eyes for each other.
You might remember an M23 derby behind closed doors at the Amex in February 2021 because of Christian Benteke’s winner for Palace in the fifth minute of stoppage time after Brighton had 74% possession 2.51 v 0.23 in xG and 25 shots to Palace’s two. Benteke’s was the third shot overall and their second shot on target, both goals. That was the last time Palace beat Brighton.
While a continuation of that drought seems the likeliest outcome, Brighton are winless in three in the Premier League and that includes games against Southampton and Leicester. Oliver Glasner’s Palace haven’t been beaten since 9th November and they’ve had arguably the tougher fixtures.
Manchester City v Manchester United
Sunday’s 4.30pm kick-off is the Manchester derby at the Etihad and it’s almost remarkable to think at least one of these teams isn’t going to lose.
City’s win against Forest turned out to be not a full stop on their long winless run but a comma. They’ve now won once in ten matches in all competitions, a run that stretches all the way back into October and includes six defeats.
United’s three Premier League games in December have been a 4-0 win against Everton and a pair of defeats against Arsenal and Forest with a total of five goals conceded. They’ve conceded a lot against City too: in the six Manchester derbies of the last three seasons, City have scored nineteen times and won five games.
Chelsea v Brentford
It’s a mere six-mile drive from the Gtech Community Stadium to Stamford Bridge but there’s precious little enmity between Brentford and Chelsea. The Bees visit the Blues in one of the Premier League’s unorthodox 7pm kick-offs on Sunday knowing that if they haven’t found a way to tighten up away from home they’re going to get a kicking.
By some measures, one might expect this to be the game of the weekend. Chelsea and Brentford are first and joint-second respectively in the goalscoring charts, bagging a combined 66 goals in 30 games. Only Wolves, Southampton and Leicester have conceded more than Brentford.
Thomas Frank seems to be pretty philosophical about his team’s away form – they’ve picked up just one point away from the Gtech this season, the same return as Southampton. They’ve scored six times in seven away games. It’s unusual for a team to find a way of playing that works so emphatically at home but limits them on the road.
If either of those consistencies ends, it will make or break Brentford’s season.
Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur
Russell Martin and Southampton were the subject of this week’s Tuesday issue. It’s clear that Martin doesn’t have the faith of the Saints support despite the fairly obvious fact that there are other big shortcomings at the club.
From that piece:
“Saints [have] had the fifth-most touches of the ball in the division but only Brentford [have] had more touches in their own penalty area and no team [has] had more in their own defensive third.
“This is the definition of possession for the sake of possession and it hasn’t gone unnoticed by Southampton’s supporters, who’ve also identified two rather obvious and linked failings of the strategy: they don’t have the players for it and it’s not working.”
There was a time when it felt like their Sunday evening opponents, Tottenham Hotspur, would win one and lose one. All of a sudden they’re winless in five in all competitions. This twilight fixture could be a defining one for both managers.
AFC Bournemouth v West Ham United
Monday night’s fixture takes West Ham United to Dorset to face AFC Bournemouth. It’s one of the Premier League’s handful of meetings between Basque managers and Andoni Iraola is in rather higher standing with Bournemouth’s supporters than Julen Lopetegui is with West Ham’s.
But the Hammers have won two of their last four, beating Newcastle away and Wolves at home in their last two Monday fixtures. Tomáš Souček scored in both of them and is almost halfway to matching his best ever Premier League goal tally.
The Cherries are in tremendous nick. They’ve won their last three in the Premier League, scoring seven times to see off Wolves, Spurs and Ipswich after losing a couple on the spin. The bookies have them as odds-on favourites on Monday and, honestly, fair enough.
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