Premier League Form Guide: Arsenal host Manchester City in a Super Sunday slobberknocker
West Ham United’s London derby visit to Chelsea rounds off the latest programme of top flight fixtures
Another weekend, another blockbuster slate of fixtures in prospect in the top tier of English football.
Arsenal start the weekend six points ahead of Manchester City, their opponents on Sunday afternoon, while there’s a derby on the way for Chelsea and West Ham United. AFC Bournemouth take on Liverpool in a game the league leaders might not be relishing.
Here’s everything you need to know about the weekend ahead in the Premier League.
Nottingham Forest v Brighton & Hove Albion
Nuno Espirito Santo’s Nottingham Forest won seven out of eight Premier League matches before their good run came to a crashing halt at AFC Bournemouth last Saturday. They’ll be hoping it’s a pause rather than a stop. Bournemouth are no mugs, after all.
Forest remain the league’s great expected goals (xG) outlier, sitting in third place in the table despite their xG of 28.5 being lower than everyone except the bottom five. They have the lowest goal difference in the top seven as well.
No problem, you’d think. Forest are built on defence and that’s fine. Shipping five in a game is a warning worth noting.
In Saturday’s early kick-off, the Tricky Trees welcome Brighton & Hove Albion to the City Ground with a ten-point gap between the sides. Brighton are the only team in the Premier League to have drawn ten matches this season.
AFC Bournemouth v Liverpool
This one is mouth-watering to say the least. Bournemouth popped Arsenal and Manchester City in the gob before emerging as a serious force in their own right and walloping Forest at the Vitality Stadium. Now they face their toughest home test so far.
The Cherries’ goalkeepers have the highest save percentage in the Premier League (78.1%) and the league’s best performance by miles against PSxG, i.e. the most saves above expected based on the quality of shots on target. Sort of.
They’ll need more of the same on Saturday. Opponents and league leaders Liverpool still have the highest xG in the division (51.4) over the season despite playing a game fewer than eighteen of the other teams.
Everton v Leicester City
It might sound strange but I doubt there are many fixtures Ruud van Nistelrooy would have fancied less on the back of last weekend’s win than a visit to Goodison Park.
Everton have their weaknesses, certainly, but if the challenge for David Moyes was to keep the defending in good nick and find a way to score more goals, the signs are good. The Toffees, whose 40% is the lowest average possession in the Premier League, have won their last two in the league and scored four times.
Leicester City have also benefited from Tottenham Hotspur shedding all pretence of being a functioning football team and sit outside the relegation zone by a point despite a seven-game losing run that has, mercifully, come to an end. The bad news? Everton will be everything Spurs weren’t.
Ipswich Town v Southampton
It seems almost unfair to label this a meeting of the Premier League’s bottom two, so ludicrously huge is the gap between them, but facts is facts.
Ipswich Town and Southampton also have the league’s second-highest and highest expected goals against (xGA), and the lowest and third-lowest xG respectively. These teams don’t generate a high number of quality chances but they give plenty up. Maybe something will give for one of them on Saturday.
The Saints are looking to avoid their 20th loss in 24 league games and they might be visiting Ipswich at a good time. The hosts have lost their last three, which isn’t entirely in keeping with their season up to that point.
Fans of Russell Martin’s tactics might like to know that Southampton’s pass completion rate of 88.2% this season is still the second-highest in the Premier League.
Newcastle United v Fulham
Alexander Isak is officially the most prolific striker in the Premier League. Mo Salah (19) and Erling Haaland have scored more than Isak’s 17 but the Swedish striker has scored 0.90 goals per 90 minutes this season. That’s outstanding.
Newcastle United bounced straight back to winning ways last weekend after running afoul of the Bournemouth juggernaut in their previous game and Isak was back in the goals too, scoring twice in five minutes like there was nothing to it.
Fulham, the Magpies’ opponents on Saturday, are holding their ground at the bottom of the top half but have won just twice in the last nine Premier League fixtures.
A Fulham nugget? I thought you’d never ask: the Cottagers have attempted more crosses this season than any other team.
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Aston Villa
Saturday’s teatime kick-off is a derby-that’s-not-a-derby between Wolverhampton Wanderers and Aston Villa at Molineux.
Villa secured their place in the Last 16 of the Champions League in midweek, which means they’ll lose at the weekend. So it goes. They have conceded 35 goals, more than anyone else in the top half of the Premier League, despite winning the highest percentage of tackles in the division.
If you’re looking for goals on Saturday, this might be the game. Wolves have the league’s lowest save percentage (59.1) and Villa have the third-lowest (63.8). Wolves are the worst team when ranked by goals conceded versus the post-shot xG of shots on target against them, too.
The light at the end of the tunnel for Wolves is that they’ve scored almost eight goals more than expected, the biggest positive disparity in the division. Maybe there’s hope yet.
Brentford v Tottenham Hotspur
There could be big implications if Tottenham Hotspur don’t win on Sunday and they’ll have their work cut out for them if that’s the target.
Brentford’s previously bulletproof home form has weakened but they’re still fourth in the home table and have only been beaten three times at the Gtech Community Stadium this season.
The Bees can be got at, that’s for sure. Only Southampton have given up more shots on target than the 144 allowed by Brentford, and they’re the only team in the Premier League whose goalkeepers have made more than 100 saves.
As for Spurs, well, it’s not great. They’ve dropped to fifteenth and, while it’s been entertaining to observe week after week that they have high xG and a big positive goal difference despite their position in the league, both have started to regress as they drop down the league. Losing will do that.
Manchester United v Crystal Palace
Sunday’s other 2.00pm game takes Crystal Palace to Old Trafford with a chance to leapfrog Manchester United in mid-table.
Palace have the Premier League’s worst performance against their xG excluding penalties (npxG), scoring 6.6 goals fewer than expected across their 23 league games this season. They didn’t score against the Red Devils at Selhurst Park in September but they didn’t concede either.
United are progressing slowly, but they’re progressing. They followed one win in six games with a spell of one loss in four, and they’ve won two of the last three. Ruben Amorim’s men have scored seven goals in their last four league games and popped in a couple in the Europa League on Thursday for good measure.
Arsenal v Manchester City
The late game on Sunday has full-blown humdinger potential as Manchester City head for the Emirates Stadium hoping to close the gap between themselves and Arsenal in second to just three points.
Only Arsenal and Liverpool are winning points at a rate of more than two per game for the season but City have rallied after their dreadful run and have won twelve of the last fifteen available to them. Only Brentford have stood up to them since Boxing Day and last Saturday’s win over Chelsea was a solid show of strength.
City are now the second-highest scorers in the Premier League with 47, behind only league leaders Liverpool. They also have the highest pass completion rate (88.2%), to the surprise of absolutely nobody.
Chelsea v West Ham United
There’s a pretty tasty London derby on Monday night, when Chelsea welcome their good chums West Ham United to Stamford Bridge for a reunion with former manager Graham Potter.
Chelsea have the second-highest xG in the Premier League – yes, behind Liverpool – but have under-performed it to the tune of two goals over the season so far. They’ve struggled of late, winning just once in their last seven league games, but they’ll be right up for this one.
The Hammers have won one of their last five and have only beaten Southampton in their last five away fixtures, but they’ve only failed to score twice since the end of November.
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