Premier League Form Guide: Liverpool and Manchester City set for Sunday showdown
London derbies at Arsenal and Fulham set up a fun Saturday in the top flight
The Premier League schedule starts on Friday with Brentford’s visit to Leicester City, a fitting appetiser for what lies ahead.
Liverpool and Manchester City meet on Sunday, while there are home fixtures for Arsenal and AFC Bournemouth at the top end of the table.
Here’s your Premier League preview as a bumper weekend gets underway at the King Power Stadium.
Leicester City v Brentford
We’ve got the treat of Friday night football in the Premier League this week and it’s a crucial game for struggling Leicester City.
Visitors Brentford have finally figured out their away form and come into this one with three wins on the road against teams in the lower reaches, but Ruud van Nistelrooy will have identified this game as a chance to halt the Foxes’ dismal run.
It won’t be easy. Brentford have their eye on a top-half finish thanks in no small part to goalkeeper Mark Flekken, who boasts a league-leading tally of 106 saves this season. That’s the most in Europe’s ‘Big 5’ leagues too.
At the other end, the Bees also have the Premier League’s highest percentage of shots on target, hitting the mark with 41.4% of their total shots in 2024/25.
Everton v Manchester United
Saturday’s lunchtime kick-off is this absolute beauty between Everton and Manchester United. Everton boss David Moyes managed the Red Devils after leaving Goodison Park in 2013 and now has Everton on a cracking run of form after returning to Merseyside.
Getting Everton’s players to step it up a gear wasn’t a simple job but the plan on the pitch isn’t complicated. No team in the Premier League has attempted more passes over 30 yards than Everton, nor fewer passes over short distances. Goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has the longest progressive passing distance in the division.
United have a long list of problems but profligacy is among the biggest. They have the worst performance in the Premier League against both their expected goals (xG) and non-penalty expected goals (npxG). Remove penalties from the equation and United should have scored nine more goals.
AFC Bournemouth v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolverhampton Wanderers have shown signs of life, not least in their win over Aston Villa, but their form is still in a pretty shabby state.
Leicester City and Ipswich Town are both just two points behind them – a big gap, given the records of the teams at the bottom this season, but not insurmountable.
They travel to the south coast on Saturday to play AFC Bournemouth, who are riding high in fifth. The Cherries have the third-highest xG in the Premier League (46.8 in total for the season so far) and will expect to add a few more this weekend.
In-form midfielder Ryan Christie is among the players now one yellow card away from a two-match ban. Bournemouth have lots of players in good nick but Andoni Iraola will be eager to avoid losing a key man.
Arsenal v West Ham United
If West Ham United are weaker than they’d like to be in attacking areas, Arsenal away is one of the fixtures they’ll be looking forward to the least.
They visit the Emirates Stadium on Saturday to take on the only team in the Premier League conceding less than a goal per game so far this season. Arsenal’s expected goals against (xGA) of 21.4 for the season so far is also the lowest in the division, though they have now played a game fewer than Liverpool.
Despite ongoing injury problems with no obvious solution, the Gunners are also making things happen at the right end of the pitch. They’ve scored nine more goals than their xG suggests – the best performance versus xG in the Premier League – and have a better goals-per-shot ratio than any other team.
West Ham share the joint-worst with Manchester United and have the lowest percentage of shots on target outright.
Fulham v Crystal Palace
Only Brighton & Hove Albion have drawn ten Premier League games this season. There are four teams who’ve drawn nine and these are two of them.
Fulham are no joke. As well as beating Crystal Palace earlier in the season, Marco Silva’s Cottagers have beaten Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest in their last two league games. They’re back up to eighth place and sit just five points shy of the top four.
They’re another team with a player on nine yellow cards but Saša Lukić, while available, might not be a surefire starter as he returns from injury this weekend.
Today’s fun Fulham fact: Antonee Robinson is the Premier League’s most prolific throw-in taker.
Ipswich Town v Tottenham Hotspur
What happens when a movable object meets a stoppable force? Tottenham Hotspur away at Ipswich Town, that’s what.
I’ve spent a lot of time with Ipswich’s numbers and the conclusion overall is that they are where they are likely to end up: in the relegation zone.
Their league-lowest xG of 22.7 – the bottom three by xG are the bottom three in reality, but reversed – meets Tottenham’s fifth-highest xGA of 42.0 at Portman Road on Saturday in a rare case of nothing’s got to give.
Ipswich will be without suspended defender Axel Tuanzebe after his first-half red card against Villa last weekend. While the underlying data offers little encouragement for Kieran McKenna, his team’s determination to get through that game with a point is cause for optimism.
Southampton v Brighton & Hove Albion
Southampton’s Flynn Downes is another player on the brink of a ban and the Saints could do without two games with an even sparser line-up than the norm.
They won their second game at the start of the month, beating Ipswich, but were immediately knocked back onto their arses by Bournemouth. It’s a weekly acknowledgement at this point but nine points at this stage of a Premier League season is an embarrassing return and Southampton warrant it thoroughly.
One of those points did come away at Brighton & Hove Albion, however. Back in November, Downes cancelled out Kaoru Mitoma’s header to make it 1-1 and give then-manager Russell Martin his fifth point of the campaign.
Aston Villa v Chelsea
Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea have alternated between wins and losses in their last four Premier League fixtures, which doesn’t bode well for Aston Villa. The Blues visit Villa Park in the Saturday teatime kick-off on the back of a 3-0 defeat against Brighton.
Chelsea have a higher xG for the season than everyone but Liverpool and Villa’s difficulty in keeping clean sheets suggests the visitors should at least get a little joy in front of goal.
Only Southampton have made more errors leading to shots and more errors leading to goals than Villa this season, but Unai Emery’s team do still have the highest tackle success rate in the Premier League.
Newcastle United v Nottingham Forest
Sunday’s early kick-off is a tantalising meeting between two of the teams who’ve put together some of the Premier League’s best runs of the season, and both could do with a win to get themselves back on track.
Nottingham Forest travel to Newcastle United behind only Arsenal as the team with the second-best performance against xG, scoring 7.9 goals more than expected this season. Forest have the lowest pass completion rate in the division.
Newcastle – whose midfielder Bruno Guimarães is the Premier League’s most fouled player by a country mile ahead of colleague Anthony Gordon – won the reverse fixture 3-1 at the City Ground in November.
Manchester City v Liverpool
The Premier League’s two top-scoring teams meet on Sunday in the final game of the weekend. Liverpool’s tally of 62 is ten better than that of Manchester City despite the champions having the most touches in the attacking third by some distance and also the most touches in the opposition penalty box.
But City rank in the middle of the table for goals conceded, level with city rivals United on 35, while the rest of the top five are the teams who’ve given up the fewest goals.
Diogo Jota and Darwin Núñez each missed a big chance for Liverpool in their rearranged game at Villa on Wednesday. The Uruguayan squandered a shot with an xG of 0.75 according to Fotmob, while Jota’s effort just before half time had an xG of 0.46 and nearly ended up in the Trinity Road Stand.
Please share the Premier League Form Guide using the button below.
I am available for writing commissions and freelance opportunities. Contact me directly and we’ll talk.
That’s your lot. Thanks for reading. Please subscribe if you enjoyed it and haven’t done so yet.